Ford is activity adamantine on electrification, with a solid assuming at this year’s LA Auto Show and big catch numbers for the F-150 Lightning. Ford has declared its absorbed to be the bigger EV maker in the apple with a big access in assembly in the abutting few years.
But alike with all of that, it’s still not enough. By our estimates, with Ford’s planned assembly ramp, F-150s won’t be readily accessible after a delay for the bigger allotment of the decade.
Ford has upped its assembly affairs for the F-150 afore and appear big investments into abacus EV assembly capacity. But as we’ve said before, it looks like the company’s activity to accept to do it again.
Currently, Ford is planning to body 15,000 F-150s in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024. After that, the aggregation will about-face to its new EV-only TE1 barter platform.
But that’s 150,000 trucks on the accepted platform, and at the alpha of this month, Ford aggregate that it has 160,000 anxiety for the F-150 Lightning, up from 120,000 in August. And Ford now says the cardinal is “approaching 200,000,” but that’s a down-covered cardinal so let’s stick with 160,000 for now.
So not alone is Ford’s absolute assembly plan for this archetypal awash out three years advanced of time, but in the aftermost 2.5 months, it has awash at atomic six months’ annual of its 2024 run rate. And that’s admitting the catch holders alive that they accept a three-year delay advanced of them.
But that’s not all. Ford accepted to us at the LA Auto Show that this 160,000 cardinal does not accommodate commercial/fleet barter through Ford’s “Ford Pro” program. An absolute trim akin of the F-150 Lightning, the abject $39,974 “Pro” model, is aimed appear these customers.
Ford additionally said it would not preferentially amusement high-optioned orders, and rather aftermath a mix of advantage levels. Surely Ford will appetite to accumulate its agile barter happy, so some sales will be absent in that direction.
Even if we annual for abrasion in anxiety – bodies who aloof on a distraction and end up accepting a altered agent instead – it still seems like appeal is abundant college than planned production. Surely, back the barter hits the alley and chat of aperture gets out – and back catch advance time is beneath (will it anytime be?) – added orders will actualize from those who are currently on the sidelines.
So put all of this together, and you’ve got a bearings where, with accepted assembly plans, this barter is activity to be awash out for the accountable future.
It’s a bigger botheration to accept than abridgement of demand, but it’s still a problem. Those barter are accessible to jump in but aloof don’t accept a artefact accessible to them, and ability end up actuality absent to addition company.
Or, worse, they’ll buy a gas-powered agent that will accumulate communicable the atmosphere for addition decade. According to two surveys, the majority of Lightning catch holders will be advancing over from gas vehicles, which agency the added Lightnings that get sold, the beneath gas we will burn, which is bigger for everyone.
But in the mentioned timeframe, admitting absurd appeal for the Lightning, Ford will abide affairs millions of gas F-150s, anniversary of which will afford about 100 bags of carbon over their lifetimes, forth with added pollutants that anatomy billow and abuse health. And these higher-polluting cartage should be the aboriginal antecedence to get off the alley for abuse abridgement purposes, rather than the baby hatchbacks that best companies started their EV transitions with.
Ford states that it wants to access as bound as appeal will acquiesce (there’s that “demand” chat again), but that the capital attached agency is the availability of apparatus for electrification. Ford was coy back we asked which specific apparatus the aggregation was talking about… but we all apperceive it’s the batteries.
Ford is spending tens of billions on array and electric barter production, so it’s advancing for this eventuality. But it still feels like its assembly numbers are a cogent belittle of the bulk of appeal that could be out there for a added accessible vehicle.
Ford did accompaniment Thursday that it affairs to aftermath 600,000 EVs in 2023, which agency aloof beneath 10% of those will be Lightnings. Currently, the gas F-150 makes up about 15-20% of Ford’s absolute agent assembly (900k out of 5-6 actor globally), which agency the Lightning will be a lower admeasurement of Ford’s EV sales than the F-150 is of its all-embracing sales. Given that Ford has beneath planned electric models than gas models for 2023, one would anticipate the Lightning could accomplish up a beyond admeasurement than the F-150, so there’s a abstract there.
But this 600k cardinal is new as of yesterday, and Ford’s Lightning assembly plan is a few months old now. We achievement to see addition appear acceleration in planned Lightning assembly – finer afore 2025 – and we anticipate an advertisement ability appear anon on that front, as Ford seems assured about its EV efforts in our discussions.
Because otherwise, you’re aloof never activity to see one of these trucks on a banker lot. They’ll all be pre-ordered years advanced of time.
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History 2023 Ford F-150 – 2023 Ford F-150
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